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Updated: Sat, 04-Sep-2010 8:00pm CDT

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WxSim & NWS Forecast Comparison

National Weather Service (NW), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)

AM Forecast Comparison

Updated: 09-04-10 at 7:55 am

Goal	Forecast Day						Day +1						Day +2						Day +3
± 2.0° F	High			Low			High			Low			High			Low			High			Low
Date	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS
09-04-10	66		64	44		44	73		73	57		55	76		76	57		54	68		65	53		43
09-03-10	63	59.8	58	44	41.6	45	68		64	47		48	76		73	57		53	80		75	60		60
09-01-10	80	70.9	77	62	53	63	73	59.8	68	48	41.6	56	69		67	42		49	72		65	52		47
08-31-10	83	87.4	79	60	56.9	66	79	70.9	75	62	53	64	75	59.8	75	55	41.6	55	72		64	52		51
08-30-10	88	87.4	89	71	68	72	87	87.4	79	61	56.9	66	79	70.9	80	60	53	63	75	59.8	75	56	41.6	54
08-29-10	88	89.9	89	72	75.2	71	90	87.4	91	72	68	70	83	87.4	83	62	56.9	67	81	70.9	79	61	53	66
08-28-10	87	85.8	85	64	66	63	89	89.9	91	69	75.2	69	90	87.4	90	68	68	68	83	87.4	87	61	56.9	61
08-27-10	85	84.0	86	63	62.6	62	87	85.8	88	63	66	62	88	89.9	87	68	75.2	68	88	87.4	88	67	68	69
08-26-10	79	76.1	76	60	63.2	58	85	84.0	86	62	62.6	61	86	85.8	85	65	66	62	88	89.9	87	67	75.2	66
08-25-10	73	71.9	71	48	49.7	49	78	76.1	78	57	63.2	55	85	84.0	83	63	62.6	61	87	85.8	89	65	66	61
08-24-10	77	75.9	73	52	51	53	73	71.9	72	47	49.7	49	79	76.1	78	58	63.2	54	83	84.0	82	63	62.6	56
08-23-10	89	84.7	89	64	65.5	67	77	75.9	74	54	51	55	72	71.9	72	50	49.7	48	77	76.1	78	56	63.2	55
08-22-10	90	85.6	85	67	69.8	64	87	84.7	87	63	65.5	67	77	75.9	76	52	51	56	75	71.9	70	52	49.7	50
08-21-10	87	82.9	84	64	61.3	64	89	85.6	87	65	69.8	65	86	84.7	86	63	65.5	66	80	75.9	74	55	51	52
Results	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS
# Succ	6		9	5		4	7		6	1		4	6		6	5		4	5		6	3		3
% Succ	46.2		69.2	38.5		30.8	58.3		50.0	8.3		33.3	54.5		54.5	45.5		36.4	50.0		60.0	30.0		30.0
Ave Error	3.0		2.4	2.8		4.0	3.1		3.1	4.4		5.6	3.5		3.6	3.9		5.7	4.3		3.8	5.1		6.1
	2.1		-0.1	0.6		1.0	2.9		1.4	0.0		1.4	2.4		1.9	1.0		1.4	2.8		2.0	1.6		0.3
Std Dev	2.4		2.4	2.1		3.0	3.8		2.8	2.8		4.5	4.4		4.5	4.2		4.9	5.0		4.8	4.9		5.3

Start: Days: Cols: Goal: Ext Stats: Diff Cols: Hilite #s: Time: Show NWS

PM Forecast Comparison

Updated: 09-04-10 at 5:55 pm

Goal	Forecast Day						Day +1						Day +2						Day +3
± 2.0° F	Low			High			Low			High			Low			High			Low			High
Date	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS
09-04-10	44		48	73		70	56		54	76		73	54		54	66		62	47		42	72		69
09-03-10	44	41.6	46	68	68.8	64	46		46	74		72	57		54	78		74	57		56	71		62
09-02-10	50	53	53	65	59.8	61	44	41.6	48	68	68.8	64	48		45	77		72	58		51	80		72
09-01-10	61	59	61	72	70.9	67	51	53	56	67	59.8	64	45	41.6	48	70	68.8	63	52		44	74		68
08-31-10	59	56.9	66	80	73.5	75	63	59	66	74	70.9	72	53	53	54	68	59.8	62	48	41.6	49	72	68.8	65
08-30-10	71	68	73	86	87.4	81	60	56.9	68	79	73.5	78	62	59	66	75	70.9	76	55	53	59	72	59.8	63
08-29-10	71	75.2	74	89	87.4	92	70	68	72	85	87.4	88	62	56.9	66	81	73.5	80	61	59	66	76	70.9	71
08-28-10	64	66	65	89	89.9	87	67	75.2	69	90	87.4	87	68	68	67	83	87.4	85	61	56.9	66	79	73.5	82
08-27-10	63	62.6	63	85	85.8	88	63	66	65	88	89.9	87	68	75.2	67	87	87.4	89	67	68	69	82	87.4	90
08-26-10	60	63.2	60	84	84.0	85	64	62.6	62	86	85.8	85	65	66	61	88	89.9	87	67	75.2	67	87	87.4	85
08-25-10	46	49.7	50	77	76.1	77	57	63.2	57	82	84.0	84	62	62.6	61	87	85.8	86	64	66	61	86	89.9	86
08-24-10	50	51	54	72	71.9	72	45	49.7	49	77	76.1	78	58	63.2	55	84	84.0	83	63	62.6	59	87	85.8	84
08-23-10	64	65.5	67	76	75.9	77	53	51	56	72	71.9	73	48	49.7	50	78	76.1	77	59	63.2	52	83	84.0	82
08-22-10	68	69.8	70	88	84.7	88	64	65.5	68	77	75.9	79	54	51	57	72	71.9	68	50	49.7	47	77	76.1	74
Results	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS	NW	Act	WS
# Succ	6		8	10		6	5		3	7		7	5		4	7		4	6		1	4		3
% Succ	46.2		61.5	76.9		46.2	41.7		25.0	58.3		58.3	45.5		36.4	63.6		36.4	60.0		10.0	40.0		30.0
Ave Error	2.3		2.4	1.7		2.6	3.4		4.5	2.3		2.1	2.7		4.9	2.8		3.0	3.1		6.1	3.9		3.0
	-0.8		1.6	1.1		-0.2	-0.9		2.0	1.1		0.6	-0.1		0.5	1.6		0.0	-0.0		-0.0	1.7		-0.2
Std Dev	1.2		2.5	2.0		1.9	2.3		3.5	2.1		1.8	2.5		3.7	2.9		2.4	2.9		4.4	3.9		2.8

Start: Days: Cols: Goal: Ext Stats: Diff Cols: Hilite #s: Time: Show NWS

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